The Green Ribbon

Jeremy Corbyn - The DUP connection

The DUP could talk to Labour in a hung Parliament, but only if it was led by someone other than Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster suggested at the weekend.

However, there are signs that some in the DUP take a more nuanced view. The Belfast Telegraph's political editor Suzanne Breen noted that East Antrim MP Sammy Wilson had spoken favourably of Corbyn in an interview with her in 2016.

Mr Wilson told the Belfast Telegraph: “There is a decency and an  honesty about Jeremy Corbyn that I admire. His views on Northern Ireland  and his past associations with Sinn Fein — at a time when the IRA’s  murderous campaign was in full swing — makes me very angry.

“But, on a personal level, I find Jeremy a lovely man. He would never walk past you in the corridor in the House of Commons without saying,  ‘Hello, how are you?’ He has time for people. He’s a true gentleman.”

Labour's manifesto on Northern Ireland could pose a dilemma for the DUP

Below is the key Northern Ireland passage from the constitutional section of Labour's newly-published manifesto. What's most interesting is the commitment to avoid a regulatory border in the Irish Sea as well as at the land frontier. 

This is in sharp contrast to the Conservatives' Brexit deal, which would create a sea border, something which Boris Johnson sought to obfuscate during this week's television debate.

The DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson has said that his party could still have leverage against this deal if the Tories don't win a large majority. That, however, ignores two things. 

Firstly, all Conservative candidates have signed a pledge to back Boris's Brexit deal as it stands. If Johnson wins an overall majority, he wll have the strongest possible mandate for that deal.

Secondly, Johnson also has leverage in that time pressure will favour his 'oven-ready' deal over an attempt at renegotiation. Indeed, even if he loses seats that factor may still give the deal a chance as long as the Conservatives remain in office.

The DUP's most realistic route to preventing an Irish Sea border is supporting an opposition majority for an alternative Prime Minister. If they can't commit to that course, there's a strong argument that the re-election of the DUP's Nigel Dodds in North Belfast would be functionally equivalent to electing Sinn Fein's abstentionist John Finucane in terms of preventing a sea border going through the Commons.

 Labour manifesto - constitutional issues - Northern Ireland 

The Good Friday Agreement and long-term peace in Northern Ireland is one of the great achievements of Labour in government. Therefore, as a priority, Labour will work quickly and tirelessly to secure the return of a genuine power-sharing government in Northern Ireland. The devolved power-sharing institutions have not been running in Stormont for over 1,000 days. 

During this period people have suffered in the face of a funding crisis as austerity continues to damage public services, which Labour will resolve. Working with a new assembly and power-sharing government, Labour will invest an extra £1.9 billion to end austerity and rebuild public services in Northern Ireland.

Women in Northern Ireland should have access to abortions in Northern Ireland. A Labour government will fully implement new laws on equal marriage in Northern Ireland so that same-sex couples are no longer treated as second-class citizens. 

We will work with all major parties in Northern Ireland to provide a good platform for the restoration of devolution alongside bringing forward and implementing  a Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland as outlined in the Good Friday Agreement.A Labour government will also protect Northern Ireland and its people in any future Brexit outcome by ensuring that there is no return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland or the creation of a regulatory border down the Irish Sea.

Election 2019 - Northern Ireland seats

Some pointers on the key parties and seats in Northern Ireland, where the 2019 elections raise a number of key questions: 

Will unionist voters stick with the DUP in the wake of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, or punish its MPs for sustaining Johnson's Government? Can the UUP benefit from their rivals discomfiture, or are they inextricably bound together in the cause of unionist unity? Could it be the emerging anti-Brexit force of Alliance which profits instead? 

Will the tribulations of Brexit reinforce nationalists' 2017 decision to opt for Sinn Fein, a party focused on Dublin and Brussels rather than Westminster, or lead them to reconsider in favour of the SDLP?

Election 2019 - useful sites

A few sites worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks of the UK general election campaign:

 

Democratic Dashboard - If you are a UK resident this is a good place to find tailored information on the elections in your area.

UK General Election 2019 poll tracker - from the Guardian.

UK Polling Report - blog by Anthony Wells of YouGov.

Election Polling - useful particularly for its lists of the marginal seats battlegrounds.

Electoral Calculus - analysis site by Martin Baxter with a lot of valuable data, though its seat calculator is controversial. Best treated as 'a bit of fun' in the spirit of John Snow.

Region by Region Guide - a short regional overview (excluding Northern Ireland) from Chaminda Jayanetti at Politics.co.uk

Northern Ireland Elections - excellent reference site by Nicholas Whyte.