The Green Ribbon

Resource warmongers descend on Uganda

Uganda's Sunday Monitor brings us what is by now a familiar African story:

While not yet an oil producer, promising prospects have drawn in the usual suspects. At a dinner table to thank higher powers for the good fortune of oil in May this year, President Yoweri Museveni sat next to Heritage Oil’s Tony Buckingham. Anyone with an Internet connection will learn interesting things about Mr Buckingham. (Sunday Monitor)

As the Yorkshire Ranter notes today, Heritage Oil was involved in a recent border incident between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in which a British geophysicist was killed.

On August 3, the Congolese army killed British oil contractor Carl Nefdt in a pre-dawn raid on a barge operated by Canada's Heritage Oil Corp., one of two companies looking to exploit oil in the wider Albertine Graben. The Congolese claimed the barge was on their side of the lake. The Ugandans say that is not true. (Monuc.org)

According to the Monitor, the episode hasn't done Heritage's interests in the region any harm at all.

SNP gain at expense of Lib Dems

Today's Sunday Times carries a Scottish YouGov poll which forms the basis for the following two stories:

Most Scots believe that independence is ahead
Only 7% of voters want Alexander as First Minister

Perhaps the most interesting aspect however, is the the trend in voting intentions highlighted by politicalbetting.com.

LAB 40% (nc): SNP 31% (+13%): CON 14% (-2): LD 11% (-12%)

If this is anything approaching the truth, it is a good showing for Labour, with the SNP's improvement coming almost entirely at the expense of the Lib Dems. The corollary is that the situation in Scotland might not necessarily be an obstacle to Gordon Brown calling an early election.

Brown won't want a strong SNP showing, even at the expense of other parties, but if it doesn't threaten Labour's majority it might not be a deal-breaker.

Alexander sets her stall out

Wendy Alexander officially launched her campaign for the Scottish Labour leadership yesterday, with a promise of more autonomy from London:

"Under my leadership, Labour will reform, renew and reconnect - reform our party organisation, renew our policies and reconnect with the people."

She added: "I want to see a new structure for Scottish Labour, signalling a party that takes more responsibility for itself."

Ms Alexander said she believed "a fresh look" was justified at relationships with the UK.

She went on: "We should not fear a debate on our constitution. But our starting point - as most Scots would agree - is to make the relationships within the UK work better, not to stop them working at all." (Scotsman)

Over at OurKingdom, Anthony Barnett hints at the possibility that an Alexander leadership could expose Labour to charges of nepotism:

When the blood diamonds run out

More evidence for Craig Murray's thesis that there's good money in death:

When news hit of [Jonas] Savimbi's death, investors dumped their shares in mining companies with Angolan operations. In a paper forthcoming in the American Economic Review, economists Massimo Guidolin and Eliana La Ferrara show that these companies' stock prices fell by an average of 12 percent within a matter of days. Why was peace bad for the diamond business? Guidolin and La Ferrara argue that the mining companies took a beating from investors because the fortunes they'd made from Angola's diamond mines relied on the treacherous conditions created by civil war. (Slate)

The article alludes to Executive Outcomes' intervention in Angola, a key moment in the development of the modern private military industry. Tony Buckingham, the man who recruited EO, would later appoint Tim Spicer as the head of Sandline.

Why cutting Scottish MPs won't solve the West Lothian Question

Today's Daily Telegraph brings us the IPPR's solution to the West Lothian Question:

yesterday, the influential Institute of Public Policy Research entered the row by raising the idea of a cut in the number of Scottish MPs. Currently, out of 646 MPs overall, 59 are Scottish - down from the 72 before the Scottish Parliament was created.

But the IPPR report, entitled The End of the Union?, said "they are still over-represented compared to England".

Reducing their number, along with MPs from Wales and Northern Ireland which also have devolved assemblies, "would be justified on the grounds that, since devolution, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs have less to do at Westminster".

The move would also reduce the "possibility of Scottish MPs carrying votes against an English majority", said the report written by senior research fellows Guy Lodge and Katie Schmueker. (Telegraph)

I can't find a reference to the report on the IPPR website, but there is a Tribune article by one of the authors from last month which makes a similar argument and criticises  the Tory position of English votes for English laws (EVOEL).

Salmond rules out Lib Dem coalition

Alex Salmond last night moved to quash the speculation that a coalition deal with the Lib Dems might still be possible.

"Initially, I would have preferred a coalition deal. That was my expectation and I fully expected that within a few days we would be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but that bus has left the station.

"Where we are now is working very effectively. If we co-operate now it will be on a specific proposal." (The Herald)

Back in May, it was the Lib Dems who were refusing to talk to the SNP. Salmond's statement may help reverse that perception, underlining the two parties contrasting fortunes since the election. Nevertheless, it's a bold statement for the head of a minority administration that will need support from within the Lib/Lab/Con 'gang of three' to get legislation through.

Aer Lingus flies into controversy

Aer Lingus' decision to withdraw its Heathrow service from Shannon in favour of Belfast has produced an interesting clash between high and low  politics, the grand vision of the all-Ireland economy on the one hand, and the more parochial perspective that is the daily bread of Irish democracy on the other.

David McWilliams takes the former view:

you cannot have your cake and eat it. We can't aim to have a political say in the North without accepting that the logical next step will be Southern investment in the North.

Put simply, we can't seek to end partition politically and try to uphold partition economically.

In the Belfast Agreement, which the vast majority of us voted for, we claimed that every person born on this island was entitled to an Irish passport and was, if they choose, an Irish citizen.

Logically therefore, those politicians who are arguing that Aer Lingus is abandoning the Irish citizens of Shannon, in favour of the Irish citizens of Belfast are being partitionist.

The reason this is an important point, and not a piece of smart arsey, is because over the coming years, Southern businesses will move to Belfast.

This is what happens when opportunities arise and when commerce is unimpeded. (Irish Independent)

Paddy Murray takes the other side of the argument in the print edition of the Sunday World:

Westminster blamed for McConnell's departure

Interesting comments from Henry McLeish on the departure of Scottish Labour leader Jack McConnell:

Mr McLeish today hinted that his successor had been thwarted in his attempts to run a "more positive campaign" and could not therefore be held entirely to blame for Labour's election result.

"I think he would have liked himself to have had a more positive campaign," said Mr McLeish.

"Left to his own devices, Jack McConnell would have wanted to have had a more distinctive Scottish flavour to his agenda. That did not materialise, and that's why I think the campaign was negative." (Guardian)

A glance back at the record supports McLeish's thesis. Witness this piece from August last year by Joan McAlpine:

Anonymous voices in his own party complain that he is just, well, too Scottish. These mutineers suggest Mr McConnell has reverted to the true colours of his Scottish Labour Action student days, when he campaigned for autonomy from London.

Lib Dems hint at rethink on SNP coalition

The BBC's Scottish political editor Brian Taylor has some intriguing comments about the Lib Dem response to the Scottish Executive's National Conversation.

They argue that it is significant that the SNP are now canvassing constitutional options short of independence.

They say further that this takes the SNP onto LibDem territory - strengthening devolution within the UK. 

They say all parties can talk around this objective. 

Being a student of subtle politics, I instantly wondered whether this divergent response signalled a willingness for the Lib Dems to talk to the SNP about coalition at Holyrood.

This, I was told, was an issue for the SNP, as the incumbent Executive. Which certainly isn't a Yes. But it isn't exactly a blunt No either. (Blether with Brian)

There must be more to this than meets the eye, because the reality is Salmond was prepared to make concessions to the Lib Dems from the beginning.

Will Scottish devolution review deliver fiscal powers?

The unionist parties in Scotland may have united in opposition to the SNP's National Conversation but there still some stark differences between them on the way forward.

Witness Des Browne's comments in the FT today:

“Rates of taxation across the UK are fixed in the Budget, and we use other economic levers to assist other parts of the country which face distinct challenges. We have historically, for example, invested more in our public services in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than we have in England as a whole. That’s how we do it, and I candidly don’t see scope for differential rates of taxation.” (Financial Times)

Now compare that to what Nicol Stephen said in this year's Scottish Lib Dem manifesto: