Interesting comment in the Guardian today:
Authoritative sources have told the Guardian that talks between Mr Brown and Sir Menzies were more advanced than either man's camp has so far admitted. It emerged that Lord Kirkwood, Sir Menzies' senior aide, and Alistair Darling, the trade secretary and ally of the chancellor, have had several discussions in recent days. (Guardian)
In an attempt to figure out what has been going on, I have expanded on Nick Robinson's timeline with some relevant stories from the last couple of months. I would be grateful for any suggestions for additions.
Sunday, 6 May
Scottish Liberal Democrat MSPs meet over the weekend following the Holyrood elections. Although some want to see what Alex Salmond is offering, hardliners win out. The Lib Dems decide to refuse coalition talks with the SNP unless they drop their commitment to an independence referendum as a precondition to negotiations.
ALEX Salmond is facing the prospect of trying to run Scotland with a minority SNP government after the Lib Dems refused to get involved in detailed coalition talks.
Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, spoke to Mr Salmond on the phone last night and gave the SNP leader an ultimatum: drop your plans for a referendum on independence or there will be no coalition talks. (Scotsman)
IN LONDON, there were rumours that Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, had been putting pressure on Mr Stephen not to do a deal with the SNP, and that Gordon Brown was looking for Lib Dem help in stopping Mr Salmond. But these were denied by a Lib Dem source. "Quite simply, the decision is going to be made by Nicol and his colleagues," the source said. "Mr Salmond has the right to try to form an Executive, and if Labour thinks we are going to try to deny them that right, they have another think coming." (Scotsman)
Monday, 7 May
It emerges that Brown and Campbell have had talks about the situation in Scotland:
The Liberal Democrats had been cast in the role of kingmakers as the SNP and Labour search for partners to build a ruling coalition. Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, and Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, have discussed the situation twice, fuelling speculation they were attempting to reach an agreement.
But the Scottish Liberal Democrats are independent of London and Sir Menzies, still facing questions over his leadership, is not seen to be in a strong enough position to lay down the law.Tavish Scott, who ran the Liberal Democrat election campaign, insisted the party would not come to Labour's rescue. (Independent)
Wednesday, 9 May
Neal Ascherson argues that the Lib Dems' stance only makes sense if there has been a Brown-Campbell deal:
The terms would run like this. In Scotland, the Scottish Lib-Dems will boycott all contacts with Alex Salmond and instead join an unofficial "unionist bloc" of Labour, Tories and Lib-Dems at Holyrood. The bloc (already nicknamed "the unholy alliance") would treat the SNP ministers as outlaws, despite their democratic mandate. It would oppose and frustrate every attempt they made to govern until the SNP-led Scottish executive collapsed and the minority government resigned.
In return, Gordon Brown would look kindly on the Liberal Democrats if - as seems possible - the next United Kingdom elections in 2009 destroy Labour's absolute majority and produce a hung parliament at Westminster. Then there could be a Lib-Lab coalition at the British level; and - if Brown is feeling especially grateful - some assurance that proportional representation would be introduced for Westminster elections. (openDemocracy)
Monday, 28 May
Martin Bright considers whether Gordon Brown is changing his position on PR.
At the launch of Gordon Brown for Britain, the prime-minister-to-be even seemed to be suggesting that he could invite senior Liberal Democrats into the cabinet. Or was he?
The Delphic nature of the Chancellor's pronouncements is beginning to flummox even those who speak fluent Gordon. There is, for instance, an intense discussion among Brown's allies about exactly what he said when questioned at the Fabian Society's hustings on the issue of electoral reform. (New Statesman)
Monday, 4 June
Adam Boulton reports the thinking of prominent Brownites on a 'Government of all the talents'
"Will we offer jobs to Liberal Democrats?" mused one. "I'd say it's more a question of when. Now, from a position of strength; in the run-up to the general election when we may need to; or afterwards, when we may have to."
Could Brown really be about to invite Lib Dems to join his cabinet - Menzies Campbell as foreign secretary, say, and Nick Clegg at Environment? Unlikely maybe, but I have encountered few prepared to dismiss the idea entirely. (New Statesman)
Monday, 18 June
Lunchtime
Ming Campbell is invited to meet Gordon Brown. Brown makes a surprise offer of junior ministerial jobs for a handful of Lib Dem peers - thought to include Lord Ashdown, Lord Lester, Baroness Neuberger and Lord Carlile. Ming says that he needs to think about it. Another meeting is planned for the following day. (BBC)
Afternoon
Ming discuses the offer with his Chief of Staff Ed Davey and his friend and fixer Lord (Archie) Kirkwood. They say that they decided to turn down the offer. They agree that Kirkwood will act as Lib Dem point man liaising with Gordon Brown's friend, and likely successor as Chancellor, Alastair Darling.
Later Paddy Ashdown finds a pink note in his House of Lords message box inviting him to call Gordon Brown's office to fix a meeting. This is fixed for Wednesday. Ashdown sees his party leader to discuss. They agree that Ashdown should not take a ministerial job but should go ahead and see Brown in case he has another offer to make (BBC)
Tuesday, 19 June
The second Ming/Gordon meeting is cancelled due to diary pressures. (BBC)
Wednesday, 20 June
Morning
A Guardian 'staff reporter' breaks the story of the Brown-Campbell contacts:
Gordon Brown and Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, have held private discussions in recent days about a plan for one or two senior Lib Dems to join Mr Brown's first cabinet, the Guardian has been told by a well-placed source.
It is being emphasised that the discussions have not been about a coalition and may not have been conclusive. (Guardian)
The story names Vince Cable and Nick Clegg as potential Lib Dem cabinet Ministers. It also includes comments from the Treasury, Menzies Campbell's spokesman and Lord Kirkwood, all dismissing the Guardian's claims as 'speculation' - a classic non-denial denial.
It is only later, reacting to the story , that Menzies Campbell rules out the possibility of Lib Dems joining the Cabinet.
Sir Menzies said: "There is no prospect of any Liberal Democrat joining the government."
Aides to the Lib Dem leader acknowledged that the two men had held talks, but refused to say what was discussed.
The party did confirm that Sir Menzies was keen to work with Brown on his proposals for constitutional reform. The prime minister-elect is thinking of launching an all-party initiative on the subject.
"There are certain things that we will want to work on in a cross-party way," a Lib Dem aide told the Press Association.
"One of the things we have been pushing on quite heavily is the constitutional convention." (epolitix.com)
Afternoon
A Dail Mail reporter blogs an interesting titbit about the provenance of the Guardian story:
Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the "staff reporter" byline. It's true that the Chancellor wants to find ways of bringing people from outside the Labour family into front-line roles, but with the Lib Dems tanking in the polls, he's under no pressure to reach out to the yellow peril. The truth is he's fairly contemptuous of the Lib Dems and what they stand for. This story says far more about growing doubts inside the party about Sir Ming's leadership. (Benedict Brogan's political blog)
Paddy Ashdown has his planned meeting with Gordon Brown at which he is offered the post of Northern Ireland Secretary. He tells Brown that as an old soldier he always follows the orders of his commanding officer. He adds that even if Ming Campbell had thought it a good idea, he did not. (BBC)
Evening
MPs said the atmosphere had calmed since a meeting of the parliamentary party on Wednesday night, at which Sir Menzies promised he would not do deals behind their backs. But one warned: "There is still a lot of unease among colleagues. They are worried about how this episode plays in the country, both with the party and with voters." (Independent)
Thursday, 21 June
The Independent reports Lib Dem reaction (in a story which, annoyingly, is no longer available online):
“Senior Liberal Democrats, including some of the party’s young high fliers, reacted with horror and fury to the news, which dominated two meetings of MPs yesterday..They protested that a clique of “elderly Scots” - including Sir Menzies and one of his closest aides, Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope - had got too close to Mr Brown and the Scottish Labour establishment. One said: “This report has the distinct ring of truth. Amongst all the smoke there is definitely fire.” Another warned: “We are steaming about it.” (Independent via politicalbetting.com)
BBC reveals that Lord Ashdown had turned down the cabinet post of Northern Ireland Secretary:
Lord Ashdown revealed he had been offered the job on Wednesday in a statement to BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It is true that Mr Brown suggested... that I might take a position in the Cabinet.
"I told him that I could not conceivably consider such a position unless my leader told me that he thought it was a good idea and even if he did, I didn't." (BBC)
