The Green Ribbon

GB's moment of truth: a retrospective

We are now only a few days away from a crucial Scottish election, and a week or two away from the start of a Labour leadership campaign that is likely to pave the way for Gordon Brown to become Prime Minister.

The Green Ribbon has had a lot to say about both prospects for some time and, at the risk of being caught by events, perhaps now is a good time to review the way things are developing.

I have believed for years that Gordon Brown's ascent to the Premiership would be a fateful moment for the union. Back in September, when it became clear that the Labour leadership contest was likely to coincide with a close-run election in Scotland, I suggested four scenarios for the way things could pan out.

Labour's Scottish campaign under scrutiny

With the Scottish elections only days away, bloggers are shedding some interest light on the murkier aspects of the campaign.

Craig Murray, who is Rector of Dundee University, has some useful insights into the background to recent high-profile endorsements of Labour.

Over at Politicalbetting.com, Mike Smithson points out that while all the reputable polling firms have Labour on 25-27 per cent in the regional vote, the two pollster from outside the British Polling Council have Labour on 34-38 per cent.

Shabby as these shenanigans are, they are frankly the minimum I would have expected, given what is at stake both for the British state in general, and its next Prime Minister in particular.   

Watching Holyrood from Stormont

BBC Northern Ireland's Mark Devenport provides some food for thought on the implications of next week's Scottish elections for Northern Ireland.

[DUP MP] Gregory Campbell doesn't seem too concerned. He believes that, even if the SNP gain power, most Scottish people value their Britishness and won't opt for independence.

However he also adds that, were Scotland to go it alone, Ulster people would still retain their special Ulster-Scots connection with their Scottish cousins.

Although he prefers maintaining the union, the DUP MP hints that, in the very long term, maybe an independent Ulster could take its place in a future Europe of small nations.

Whilst Sinn Fein is campaigning for the unification of the western island in this archipelago, the SNP is lobbying for the partition of the eastern isle.

But the Sinn Fein MLA for North Antrim, Daithi McKay, isn't going to let that stop him cheering on those he views as his fellow nationalists. (BBC News Northern Ireland)

Boateng fighting SA mercenary bill

Two interesting new pieces from Dr Alexander Von Paleske:

Adnan Khashogg, Rakesh Saxena, and the Spiderweb
When the Regular Army goes, the Mercenaries come

The latter piece focuses on British High Commissioner Paul Boateng's efforts to water down South Africa's planned anti-mercenary law.  It also has some interesting details about the kind of people who are turning up in Iraq:

The desire in Europe to serve for these "security" companies has despite the high salaries somehow watered down. Iraq turns out to be a walk into hell. This experience was also made by Gary Branfield, former member of the Civil Cooperation Bureau and architect of the attack on Gaborone in 1985.

Branfield alias Major Brian, who on 31 July 1981 killed with a death squad the ANC representative in Harare Joe Gqabi, by shooting him 19 times, found eventually his fate as mercenary in Iraq in 2004, where he was killed.

War Business: Rainews24 on Aegis

An English-language version of the Italian TV documentary on Aegis is now available here. Apparently, negotiations between Aegis and the Italian Foreign Ministry for a contract worth around €3.5 million are still ongoing.

Aegis wins Italian contract

The Italian Foreign Ministry has apparently engaged Tim Spicer's Aegis Defence Services to protect its staff in southern Iraq.

As a result, Aegis was the subject of a 20 minute documentary being broadcast on Rainews24 today and yesterday. Journalist Maurizio Torrealta visited London to interview Craig Murray, Paul Collins of War on Want and myself, while one of his colleagues spoke to Jean Mc Bride and Paul O'Connor of the Pat Finucane Centre in Belfast.

The documentary Affari Di Guerra is currently available in Italian on the RAI website. I'm told that there will be an English version at some stage.

"Inchieste" of Rainews24 edited by Maurizio Torrealta presents:

    "WAR BUSINESS"
    
    By Flaviano Masella, Mario Sanna, Angelo Saso, Maurizio Torrealta
    
    A car full of armed men travels at high speed on an Iraqi road. When another car tries to pass it, a machine gun appears from the window of the first car and it starts shooting a burst of machine-gun fire until the second car stops. The operation recurs more and more times, on the road side an increasing number of cars and wounded people stand still. They are the "contractors" of "Aegis", the British company, who try to defend themselves from the risk of possible attacks. The video has been broadcast by the British tv station Channel 4 with the comment of a former Aegis soldier.

Trimble joins the Tories

David Cameron today welcomed David Trimble into the Conservative Party:

Standing alongside Lord Trimble outside Parliament, Mr Cameron declared: "I am sure he is going to bring a great amount to our Party, not just on the subject of Northern Ireland, but more broadly on security, terrorism, the constitution and develop the Conservative Party for the future. It's not every day you can welcome a Nobel Prize winner to your party." (Conservatives.com)

Trimble's arrival doesn't sit too easily with last week's Spectator story about the Scottish Conservatives becoming a separate party, in effect moving towards the semi-detached Ulster Unionist model that he is moving away from.

If Trimble does have any input into the Conservatives' constitutional position, he's not likely to have much sympathy for a solution of the West Lothian Question on English nationalist lines. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if this issue was a factor in his decision.

After all, members of his circle, such as Steven King and Arthur Aughey, have shown that they are well aware of the possible implications of the rise of English nationalism.

Update 18/4: The Belfast Telegraph reports that Trimble wants to re-establish the UUP-Tory link. It's possible, I suppose, that this would provide some political cover for a move to a similar relationship with the Scottish Tories.

Holyrood poll of polls: Is Labour catching up?

Weber Shandwick have issued a new poll of polls which purports to show that Labour may do better than expected in the Scottish Parliament elections.

“There is a real possibility that although the SNP may have a larger share of the popular vote, and maybe even more MSPs, that Labour and the Lib Dems could just scrape enough MSPs to continue in coalition. If the SNP and Liberals can’t agree on a referendum on independence then this outcome is a very real possibility.” (Scotland Votes blog)

I have some reservations about this exercise, which were strengthened by Weber Shandwick's correspondence with Mick Fealty today:

“We took the answers to the voting intention questions for both regional and constituency elections from the most recent poll by each polling organisations.  There has been 6 published.  We did include the MRUK poll. People can argue whether the MRUK poll was flawed or not”. (Slugger O'Toole)

The survey by MRUK, published in the Glasgow Herald on 5 April, is the only recent poll to show a Labour lead. Polling expert Mike Smithson had this to say about it:

"The pollster in the Glasgow Herald story, MRUK, is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and so does not have to follow the transparency rules. Ignore." (politicalbetting.com)

Having said that Weber Shandwick's overall figures are not that far from the SNP's own poll of polls, available on the excellent Scottish Politics site from Alba Publishing, so the possibility that Labour and the Lib-Dems are still within toucing distance of the SNP cannot be excluded. However, the Labour revival portrayed by MRUK looks distinctly unlikely.

How will the Tories play their English card?

Andrew Rawnsley on the nightmare scenario that could emerge for Gordon Brown in the coming months:

The stakes for him are enormous. The Tories narrowly won the popular vote in England at the last general election. If Labour loses Scotland next month, David Cameron will be able to hit Gordon Brown with a double whammy. The Tory leader can portray Gordon Brown as a Prime Minister without a mandate from either England or his native land. There's a word with a clear meaning on both sides of the border for how Gordon Brown will feel. That word begins with an f. (Observer)

There are two assumptions behind this scenario. That the SNP will win the Holyrood election, and that Brown will win the Labour leadership. Given the SNP's consistent poll lead and the hype around a cabinet-level challenge to Brown, it's beginning to look questionable which is the shakier premise. Nevertheless, I expect both to be realised, which means the Tories will get the opportunity to unleash Rawnsley's double whammy. Will they take it?

1974 Dublin Monaghan Bomb report published

The MacEntee Report is now available from the Department of the Taoiseach.