The Green Ribbon

No Shoot to Kill conference this Saturday

Just a quick reminder that the No Shoot to Kill conference I mentioned in a previous post takes place this Saturday 15th October, Friends House Euston, London NW1. 1:30pm - 4:30pm

Economist says Republic could afford NI subvention

The latest edition of the Connolly Association's Irish Democrat has some interesting material from the annual Desmond Greaves Summer School.

Among the pieces that caught my eye was this contribution from economist Douglas Hamilton on north-south integration:

Traditionally, unionists have argued that Irish economic, let alone political, unity is a financial impossibility due to the size of the British Treasury's subvention to the north, the removal of which would have a dramatic impact on local taxes to support the public services.

While breaking the financial link with Britain would involve severe costs, it is worth making some revised estimates of what the consequences might be in the 21st century. The south has been running a substantial fiscal surplus throughout the 1990s and it can be argued that Britain's subvention to the north is likely to fall.

The hypothetical fiscal position for the whole of Ireland would be a deficit. However, that public deficit is likely to be below the Maastrict criteria of three per cent of GDP, making, in the short term at least, an integrated Ireland economy no longer something to be seen as a financial impossibility. (Irish Democrat)

Iraq: the creation of a failed state

openDemocracy's security analyst Professor Paul Rogers argues in his latest piece that the conflict in Iraq has reached something of a stalemate.

All indications suggest that the insurgency cannot be controlled, yet Iraq is simply too important for the United States to withdraw, however deep its predicament. The oil factor, both within Iraq and especially in the wider Persian Gulf region, is simply too central to US security interests. (openDemocracy)

More on Heritage Oil

The Heritage Oil deal in Kurdistan which I mentioned last week has attracted a lot of interest in the blogosphere, notably from Middle East expert Juan Cole, who was surprised to see a Canadian company get in ahead of the Americans.

Heritage's success is indeed ironic given what investigative journalist Duncan Campbell reported about the company's founder Tony Buckingham a few years ago:

In March 1995, Buckingham traveled to Baghdad to attend a meeting with Safa Hadi Jawad, Iraq's oil minister. The Iraqi government was seeking foreign partners to invest in its oil industry once sanctions were lifted. They were offering the inducement of stakes in some of the world's biggest oil fields. Among the 200 oil executives who smelled fresh money in the Baghdad air, there was no one from the United States or the United Kingdom – except Tony Buckingham. On their journey across the lobby of the Al Rasheed Hotel, they tramped over a floor mosaic depicting a snarling, feral image of former President George Bush. Some stopped for photographs. (The Centre for Public Integrity)

Blogger Karl Marx was Right asks some interesting questions about Heritage's Kurdish partner Eagle Group. There's also been some focus on Heritage chairman Micael Gulbenkian, as a result of his family's role in previous Iraqi oil carve-ups.

However, with the honourable exception of the Yorkshire Ranter, few have picked up on the real story, namely Buckingham and Heritage's role in the rise of 'Private Military Companies' such as Executive Outcomes and Sandline International in Africa in the 1990s.

Will the Treasury hammer the DUP?

From this week's Irish World:

No guns – no government. That has been the axiom around which peace process politics has revolved for the past seven years.

Not any more. The IRA’s guns are out of the equation and a return to devolved Government is now firmly on the agenda.

The DUP claims to be a devolutionist party, but it has qualified that stance heavily in recent months.

“The Secretary of State should be aware that of all the political parties in Northern Ireland, the DUP needs devolution the least,” Ian Paisley claimed in August.

England Word Association

If blogging seems slow here over the last couple of days, it's because I've been struggling with the latest infernal meme sent to me by Gareth from Little Man in Toque.

Write down the alphabet on a piece of paper and then do an England word association for each letter of the alphabet. Pick the first thing that comes into your head.

Here's what I've got so far. There's still a few blanks left unfortunately.

Agreement of the People

Blake (William)

Common law

Ryle Dwyer reflections

T Ryle Dwyer reflects on IRA decommissioning in the Irish Examiner today, and underlines once again that the path being trodden by Sinn Fein looks very similar to the one previously travelled by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

As Dwyer notes, both of the latter parties had very shaky constitutional credentials when they took power.

For all his virtues and strengths, the credentials of Collins as constitutional democrat must be seriously questioned. He exhibited the same contempt for democracy as de Valera did in 1922. Both were primarily interested in power, and the politicians, who have been invoking their names ever since, are similarly interested only in power.

On coming to power in 1932, de Valera admitted he had underestimated the treaty. He had admitted 10 years earlier that his objections were only over a shadow, so the whole treaty controversy was over less than a shadow. And that has been the real difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael ever since. (Irish Examiner)